Tuesday, July 1st, 2008...1:17 pm
Heads Blogging, Fertility Desired
In this diavlog with moral philosopher and consumption partner Will Wilkinson, he and I discuss “desired fertility”–that is, the number of children women say they want when surveyed. As actual fertility has dropped below replacement, desired fertility has generally remained stable around 2 or more. Speaking in general terms during the conversation, I argued that people continue to say they want a pair of offspring. That’s generally true, but I should have mentioned that even desired fertility is dropping to about 1.7 in German-speaking parts of Europe. I’m obviously skeptical of much demographic forecasting, but a drop in desired fertility is a good reason to believe that birth rates will continue to fall. It’s a sign that Germans’ shared conception of the ideal family is slowly changing — that even in a world freed from time and wealth constraints, couples would prefer fewer than two miniature versions of themselves.
4 Comments
July 1st, 2008 at 1:41 pm
This question does seem to be an interesting economic/psychological indicator — the better times are, the more spawn one seems to want. My wife and I planned for years to have just one child, in part out of global population concerns but primarily because we like spending our money on ourselves. When we ended up with twins, acquaintances who did not know of our single-child plans would say, “Well, you got them both out of the way with just one pregnancy!” — the assumption being that OF COURSE we would want more than one.
I wonder if, just as now it seems assumed a couple would want at least two children, it will soon be assumed that moderately affluent couples will want at least three.
July 1st, 2008 at 2:20 pm
I’m with the Germans. I have one and seven-tenths of a child, and I don’t plan on having any more.
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:00 am
It’s a sign that Germans’ shared conception of the ideal family is slowly changing — that even in a world freed from time and wealth constraints, couples would prefer
Is “desired fertility” really free of time and wealth constraints? I would have thought the those issues were embedded together.
Personally if I had responded to a survey about desired number of children I wouldn’t have any considered answering as if money and time weren’t constraints.
July 27th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
[…] to Sunday morning, I spend time with my consumption partner (to borrow a euphemism from the lovely Kerry Howley), because I don’t have much time to do that during the work/school week. Then from about noon […]
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