Comments on: The New York Times Magazine on the Baby Bust http://kerryhowley.com/2008/06/30/the-new-york-times-magazine-on-the-baby-bust/ Thu, 11 Mar 2010 23:28:11 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: PFJO http://kerryhowley.com/2008/06/30/the-new-york-times-magazine-on-the-baby-bust/comment-page-1/#comment-655 PFJO Wed, 02 Jul 2008 09:37:33 +0000 http://kerryhowley.com/?p=109#comment-655 As is the case with most popular demographic discussion, mr. Shorto's causal connection between a generous state and an increased fertility rate is deeply troubled by his not adjusting the fertility rates for native and immigrant populations. By crudely assuming that populations are monolithic, his conclusions are virtually worthless. When scrutinized more closely it is apparent that there isn't much of a difference between European, Scandinavian, and U.S. birthrates when controlled for first and second generation immigrant populations. It would seem that those differences in welfare and economic liberty have a causal effect in attracting highly fertile immigrants more than anything else. As is the case with most popular demographic discussion, mr. Shorto’s causal connection between a generous state and an increased fertility rate is deeply troubled by his not adjusting the fertility rates for native and immigrant populations. By crudely assuming that populations are monolithic, his conclusions are virtually worthless.

When scrutinized more closely it is apparent that there isn’t much of a difference between European, Scandinavian, and U.S. birthrates when controlled for first and second generation immigrant populations.

It would seem that those differences in welfare and economic liberty have a causal effect in attracting highly fertile immigrants more than anything else.

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